Another go [2016]

Time for another stab at promotion after the surprise season. I really wish we had gotten the promotion last time round. Not just because of the obvious reason of...you know...being promoted. But because for the second season expectations will be much higher and teams will be approaching things differently.

I did say I wanted to strengthen at the AML and ST positions so I managed to bring in...

Bjorkebaum

Cover for both AML and ST! The scouts and coaches rate him pretty highly and I think he'll be, at the very least, better than Muqdisi.

Backstrom

 He looks like he'll develop well and the scouts are convinced that he'll maybe even be a premier prospect. I shelled out £10k for him but I don't mind. I'm quietly confident that he's well worth the investment. Last season he played 17 games in the same division as us so he's at this level at least.

Viggeborn

Viggeborn cost 18k in compensation but again I think he'll do the job. In my mind I'm picturing him beating the defenders for pace and then cutting inside. Trust me in my mind, the goals look awesome. He got 4 in 12 games in the South division, which is the same level. I'm expecting a bit more from him but at least he's already got a record at this level just like Backstrom.

I'd be on the track of another DC...

But I couldn't tempt him here. Hopefully though the defence will stand up again.

I'm not angry, I'm just disappointed

I know it's a cliche, and I know I shouldn't be that disappointed considering season expectations but I am.

3rd and 43 points. Only 2 (plus some goals) off the playoff place, and 3 off the title. So close. So far. That in itself isn't disappointing. After all if you try your hardest and don't succeed then you can't really complain. What makes it difficult is just how bad we were in our final 5 games.

We collapsed. 2 points from 4 games. It left us in a horribly position for the final game of the season. We were 5th but could get 2nd if we won and certain games went our way.

If we won and Vasalund drew or lost then we could do it. Alternatively if Forward lost we could do it. Though it would be on goal difference in certain situations.

At various points during the final game we were 5th, 4th, 3rd and a tantalising 2nd. Until Forward came from 2 goals down to win 3-2.

What a sad looking graph. It comes down to over reliance. Bergh was out and in the Degerfors game Felic ended up out for 6 weeks. Key players at either end.

That said we played well almost all the way through the season, and way beyond what was expected. We'll have done our rep no end of good. The team is increasingly settled and now we might be able to add a few key players to make another push.

We were rewarded at the end of the season too. I got manager of the year, and Bergh was named as the keeper in the team of the season. I would have probably added Felic to the team of the year but as that would have meant paying him a £4k bonus I didn't mind too much.

Also got another job offer. Stockport in the BSP. Nah, I think I'll skip that. Looking forward to at least another season with the mighty 'Tuna City.

End of Season Analysis

I'll squeeze this here if I may:

Injuries meant we kept rotating and rarely settled. I think over half the season was played without an actual AML in the AML position. Passing completion was okay and told the same story as ever. I think it was reflected in the match engine too. We played great possession football and when we had the right people at the end of the move we were deadly.

The goals weren't as spread around but I think that is due to the combination of the step up and the injury forced rotation in the midfield. We definitely relied too much on Felic.

Attack

Broken record I know but an extra striker would be nice! Muqdisi to be frank wasn't great. He wasn't as clinical or creative as Felic, and he didn't have the pace of Berner. He just sort of trundled along.

Berner didn't get a great deal of starts, especially up front. Mainly because I was running him ragged by using him as cover on the wings.

Abohwo didn't start up front as he was doing too well from AMR. Frankly the way he drifts inside from the AMR was productive enough. I didn't want to tamper with that.

Midfield

Again...broken record. I'd like a nice out and out AML please. Easier said than done though if no one really wants to join. Other than that I think we're okay. What I need to do is ease Gustafsson into more games so he can take over from Wikstrom - he's getting on.

Defence

I feel okay with it as it stands. My first choice back four all played well. I have two back up/promising DC's and a back up DR (Ekholm) who had a howler of a debut, but might be alright. If I recruit here it has to be a quality plater.

Keeper

I've got Wachtmeister now. I might get a loanee in (if I can) for extra cover but they'll do for now.
 

Above expectations [2015]

We're still playing well above expectations. Which could mean a couple of things I guess.

1) We're awesome and this is going to be a fantastic season.

2) When we crash and burn it's going to hurt even more because of this false dawn.

Who's knows. With 5 games to go we're a healthy 2nd place with 38 points. I don't think we have to fear relegation at this point. Promotion is what we're looking at. The title isn't out of reach and there's always the play off place.

A few blips here and there but our recent form is okay (ish). The worrying thing is in the past 3 games we only have  4 out of 9 points. If that continues then who knows what will happen. It's still quite tight at the top.

Of the 5 games left I would consider Degerfors, Karlstad BK and Vasteras SK to be tricky games.

What makes it more difficult is that Bergh is out injured for 8 weeks. I've managed to track a replacement but I don't know yet whether he'll be any good.

The attributes are promising for this level (at a glance he might be considered better than Bergh) but keepers are always tricky. They are the position I hate recruiting for the most because it is so easy to get it wrong. It's very hard to judge as well (I find) whether a keeper is playing poorly or has been let down by the defence. It's a bad point in the season to be recruiting for such a key position but none of the pre-season options gave us a 2nd look.

There's another recruit as well whilst I remember, from the youth intake. Ludvig...

Again for this level, a club with these facilities he looks like a good youth prospect. With some targeted training and a good tutor I think he'll excel. Maybe not top flight quality but perhaps 2nd tier.

This is where I struggle to understand the complaints people have on forums sometimes about youth prospects. Even though the two players I've put up from my last two youth intakes aren't superstars I have to admit they are fantastic prospects for this level. I think sometimes FM players need to adjust their expectations; how many world beaters come through every year at a top flight academy?

Additionally I think every youth signing has to be looked at realistically. They are a youth player - they need work and training. They need to be nurtured. They shouldn't even be close to the finished article at 15-18.

Anyway back to the final five...

Half Full [2015]

At the half way point in the season the glass is very much half full for 'Tuna. We're riding relatively high, far beyond what was predicted by the media/board at the start of the season. Promotion doesn't look impossible at this point. I think the top 4 could shift around quite a bit between now and the end of the season but I think we've got a good chance of keeping pace.

1st place is perhaps a little misleading. Not wanting to be all negative but survival is key still. That's goal number one and with 25 points we're not that far away from the 30 point target.

The have been playing pretty well despite being unsettled by injuries. We're definitely over reliant on Felic at the moment and that shows a bit in the matches we've lost. When he's not played well (i.e. had a game where he somehow doesn't know where the goal is) we've struggled and dropped points.

We've also had a few decisions go against us. Or I've thought they've gone against us. I've served a one match ban for complaining. We had a run of three games with three penalties and I moaned about them all.

So how are they shaping up?

 Generally speaking the pass completion is where I want it to be. DC's Manns and Sundberg aren't great but I think this is where a trade off comes in. Manns in particular runs with the ball out of defence really well and when he loses it it tends to be further up the pitch. As such it's a little less dangerous. Quite often though his runs actually produce quite a bit of danger - he links up with Molder and Abohwo, and they swap places and overlap really well. So long as that keeps happening I'm willing to put up with 69% for completion.

Celsing isn't doing too well pass completion wise and that's hitting his assists. If he ever gets a good run without an injury then that might change.

Goal wise after Felic they are spread amongst the midfield a bit. We're not as prolific as last season, not even close. I'm really torn about what to do. If I could get another striker in then I would but I'm not convinced about the quality of the ones I can actually recruit. Magnusson is still on free and still won't discuss terms with me. Everyone else looks like they might be okay but at the end of the season, when our rep increases a bit, we might have much better choice.

At the moment I'm leaning towards letter Berner and Muqdisi be my back ups for the Treq position and see if I can muddle along.

Defence wise we're not leaking too many. Largely down to Bergh...

Well actually we are shipping quite a few but it could be worse.

Also, in other new I got my first job offer.

Not really tempted by Eastleigh or the Blue Square South  The budget is twice ours but they're over it and...I'm having fun here. Doesn't really make sense to move from a....promotion chasing...team to a middle of the road team (sorry Eastleigh). Career wise it doesn't make sense.

I could be wrong... [2015]

I could be wrong and I don't mind.

5 games in and we have three wins, a draw and a very narrow loss. I also appear to be wrong on the Sunday Abohwo front as well. He's managed to get 3 goals and assist in those games.

The season is slightly longer at this level at 26 games. Around 30 points in the past few seasons has been enough for survival so with 5 games gone we're about a third of the way with our 10 points. Based on how we've been playing I think it's possible. I think we need to try and get as close as possible to the target by the half way mark - I really don't want a slump in the second half of the season.

A lot of the team are quite determined or fairly professional (12 if we include resolute) so I think they can keep the standard up.

I'm not entertaining thoughts of promotion...yet. We've played well but the team is pretty fragile. A few specific injuries and the whole thing will come tumbling down.

We'll see though. Maybe by the time the second half of the season comes round some of those players on my shortlist will have become desperate enough to join.

Not exactly filled with optimism [2015]

Well I did say I thought the team was strong. I just needed to add some depth, blah blah blah.

With the title and promotion I thought I might be able to tempt a few more players to the team. I have scouted and had a list full of great looking players (for this level) that I though might be swayed with a bit of cash (plus a lengthy spell without a job). That didn't really happen though. No one seems convinced that we'll be here to stay and so my recruiting has been a bit...odd.

I almost got this guy but of course I was beaten to him.

Instead I brought these players in.

Spending more than I ever really wanted too.

Gregorcik

Long term investment at the back perhaps. Scouts and coaches thought he'd be a great investment, Swedish 1st Division Elite supposedly. I'm not as convinced but he should at least be good cover.

Claesson

Scouts didn't think as much of him but I thought the physical and mental stats would mean he'd also be good cover.

Ekholm

And yet more cover. I don't see him challenging Molder or Manns directly but with injuries having someone who can slot into that wingback role (sort of) would allow me to juggle the rest of the back line.

Muqisi

Spent far more than I should for a player of his years or attribute but he could cover the AP role and maybe the Treq in a similar style to Felic (again sort of).

Abohwo

I'm in two minds over him which is worrying considering the wage I had to offer to get him. He's not an AML but it means I can shift Cirak over to AML at a pinch. I think he'll be okay on the wing with a tendency to cut inside. I can always play him upfront as well.

I've not mentioned Redzic as he is just a youth player to act as cover. At least he, at £6 a week, isn't going to break the bank.

Despite the above players though (or in part because of) I'm not feeling very confident. Adding to that is the fact that Celsing, Berner, and Cirak have all gotten injured in the pre-season. The shortest time out is 6 weeks, the longest 3 months. They'll all be back at various points but that means at some point they'll be missing, and when they are back they'll have to get back to match fitness. Also means the team will start of pretty - very little cover. So I'll be calling up a couple of youth players to fill some gaps.

Fingers crossed.

Time to ponder [2014]

So with the title won it's time to actually reflect on the team.

From the 1st team I've removed all the players that didn't actually get a game. Usually youth players who were there to add a bit of depth if need be. I've also removed all but one of the players who are leaving at the end of their contract. Between them they only got a handful of sub appearances because of injuries.

Vassilou is the other player who will leave. He was reasonably solid at the back but not overly impressive. Worse still his attributes are rubbish and he's getting on. At 32 I don't see him making the step up and I don't see him being worth the £90 a week he wants. So he'll be going.

We also have two additions from the youth intake: Gustafsson and Prodell.

The coaching staff reckon Gustafsson is a star of the future. I can't really disagree with that and so I placed him on the bench and made him available for 45mins of any reserve games. Prodell they think will be rubbish but I'm willing to take a chance on him. The rest of the intake was rubbish but I can't complain really. One good player and one chancer? I'll take that for a bottom tier team.

The all important pass completion has generally dropped since the halfway point. Some of that can be excused because of the lack of stability from injuries but I would prefer much better from the team. That might be a bit unrealistic for this level but I have a feeling the slight drop in performance at the end of the season could be linked to the drop in pass completion.

I think I was close to my predictions for Felic and Magnusson. Felic played pretty much every league game I think because I favoured him and he managed to grab a healthy amount of goals and assists. In Magnusson had played more (and he was certainly good enough) I think he total would have outstripped that of Felic's. I actually want to sign Magnussion permanently as on the ME he looked pretty dangerous. Felic would bring people in, one two and then turn on the edge of the box to try and score. Magnusson would charge forwards, pick a spot and then terrify the keeper. He also linked up quite well with Berner when I played Berner on the wing (injuries you know). But he has laughed off my offer for £300 a week plus other bonuses. He's out of contract and on a free. I'll keep trying.

Overall I think the team pulled together and shared the load. If you look at the two first choice wingbacks, Molder and Hansen, they chipped in with a few goals but importantly 11 assists.

Celsing, the two Ciraks and Kamara contributed a fantastic 20 goals and 21 assists.

Berner spent most of the time coming off the bench or starting in the AML role in the 2nd half of the season. So with only a bit part that was often out of position he still got an impressive 7 goals.

Perhaps the unsung hero though is Bergh.

Not the most fantastic and awe inspiring of attributes but he kept 9 clean sheets, and conceded 21 goals in 22 games. Those 9 clean sheets were key.


What to do next?

The squad is strong and based on the ease with which we won the title I'm confident we can stay up at the very least without too much in the way of changes (famous last words perhaps?). The board have given us £5.2k a week for wages and ~£40k for transfers so we can spend a little if need be.

We do lack depth though and I'd rather do more than just survive. So I'm going to aim to recruit and recruit well.

Attack

We need another striker....again. I'm not obsessed honest. Magnusson has left after his loan and I want to get him back. If not I want to get someone similar. I don't want Felic and Berner to have to take all the strain. Especially with Felic getting on a bit.

Midfield

I need another AML to cover for Celsing. That's where part of the 'slump' came from - trying to cover for Celsing's position. I would quite like one or two young players as back up here as well just so I can rotate a little to keep players fresh at key points. An AML is the priority though.

Defence

I'm happy with Molder, Manns, Sundberg and Hansen. So that's the back four from right to left but beyond that I don't think we have good cover. Ekblad is staying on for another season but I think he really is an emergency back up for the next season. So any back up I can get for defence will be key. At least one DC and multifunctional DL/R would be good.

'Keeper

Bergh has done well and I think I'll stick with him but I have no backup. Risky really and we were lucky that we got through the season like that. I need a decent back up, a player with potential to take over in a few years or just a loanee.

Overall

I'm thinking AML, GK, DC and maybe a DL/R. Anything else is a bonus.

I actually have two defenders in mind but neither of them actually want to join but maybe once the new season starts and we're in the league above they'll rethink.

Club Development

There's nothing going on here but I thought I'd mention it. I would love to club to upgrade the facilities but we have about £180k in the bank. Not a great deal really so I think I'll hang fire. The board will only say no anyway.

Well that was nice [2014]

If they keep it up I might have a new club to add to my list of favourites. There's something about 'Tuna City.

Despite the crash we beat poor IFK Eskilstuna 2-0. Though it took until the second half to complete it. In doing so we pretty much relegated them which wasn't very fun. I'd have liked them to stay up.

The next match was much more important. 2nd place Rynninge. If we beat them then it would put us 9 points clear with only 9 more points to play for. I was pretty cautious though as they were one of the two teams to actually beat us this season.

So how did it go? I went out playing control football and for the first 30 minutes they were all over us. Shots rained in and the frame of the goal saved us several times. We managed to attack but they blocked every decent shot we had. I decided to make a change. Normally I don't do anything until half time unless we're being hammered but I couldn't see the continued pressure going well. They were going all out and attacking anyway so I switched to counter in the hopes that if we caught them on the break we'd produce better chances and actually put something away. Did it work?

Sort of. We played better but the first goal came from a set piece and the final goal came in extra time from a mistake. I didn't matter though we'd won and it put us in a position where we only needed 1 point from 3 games to seal the title (assuming Rynnige won all 3 of their games).

Who did we have to play? Already relegated Arameisk-Syrianska, not yet safe Varmbol and top half Konyaspor.

So perhaps not the most tension filled run in. We didn't actually beat Arameisk though. They held us to a draw. Not very impressive for us but it was enough. We then drew with Varmbol and beat Konyaspor to finish with a (currently) record breaking 48 points (My post about the first half of the season was right - we did drop more points).

You can see the dropped points here and there. Also the score lines at times got a bit tighter, we conceded more. I put this down to the change in style by other teams and the injuries we had. We pretty much had two or three players in the physio's room at any one time. This isn't too high but they were always first teamers and it sort of rotated so my defence for example never really settled.Also for most of the 2nd half of the season I didn't have an out and out AML playing (excuses, excuses).

But...we had the title! Promotion! And although our form did waver it bit our hold on 1st place didn't much. I don't want to brag but...

Things were slotting into place and the pessimist in me had to acknowledge that the title and promotion at least meant I should be able to get jobs in the bottom tier of Sweden if everything went wrong elsewhere.

Some of the players also seemed happy.

Oh thanks...

I'm a fan of yours too Felic

All but Molder

Two out of three dedicating it to me.

Not sure what I've done to Max Molder though....I'll keep an eye on him...

Next up a bit of end of season analysis of the below...

Five games to go [2014]

For a bit of symmetry here's the table with 5 games to go...

 Still top but the gap isn't as big as I'd like between myself and 2nd. Form has dipped in the second part of the season.

There have been some key injuries. Like Celsing, Wikstrom and Sundberg being out but it's not good enough really. Which on reflection seems a little harsh considering we're still top. It is my fault though...I've been sticking to counter attacking when I should have been mixing it up a bit more. I could see it plainly in the Arkopolis game. We were 3-0 down by half time. I switched to control and we dominated and were unlucky to lose it in the end. 

I'd not mentioned before but we have an interesting derby game this season. Well two I guess. IFK Eskilstuna got promoted from the non-playable league. They share the stadium with us. All the Eskilstuna based teams do. Which makes for an interesting fixture - we drew 'away' with them, 2-2. The 'home' leg is next.

Any other news...only a take over.

Aaaaannnd...it's done

No money to be invested but I'm fine with that. Our bank balance is fine (~£190k) and is projected to be okay by the end of the season (£182k). Nothing quite like a bit of fiscal responsibility.

The transfer window opened and I did see if I could tempt any more players but until we get promoted (if we get promoted) I don't think we'll tempt many players that will actually improve the squad. Instead I just spent some time scouting for players out of contract that might be interested...once they get sick of being unemployed. I will wait until they are at their lowest ebb and vulnerable and then strike.

[As I was writing this I had the derby game playing in the background...we went 2 goals up and then FM13 crashed. 

I saved a few days before hand but it means the table is actually slightly different to the above. Just as importantly the takeover went ahead but instead of Andresson taking over a Daniel Arifi did. Same result though. No investment.]

Happy at Halfway [2014]

There's good news and bad.

The bad being that by the half way point in the season I already know I won't be claiming the invincible steam achievement.

The good being I'm still top anyway as I've not really dropped many points. 26 lovely points from 11 games.

There's been a slight drop in form and performances but I think that's largely been due to a few injuries. So my defenders have had to rotate a little bit more than I would have liked.

Still some good games and if that's the worst of it (and occasional draw and the rare loss) then I think this season is going to be a good one. If I get another 26 in the second half of the season then that would put me on a healthy, and currently record breaking, 52 points. In the last two seasons 42 and 40 have been enough for the title.

I do however know that magically projecting 26 points from my next 11 games isn't a very realistic way of going about things. We've already hit a bit a rough patch in the past few games, so what's to say it won't continue or get worse? Furthermore I'm going to have to deal with how teams react to us in the 2nd half of the season.

Up until this point I've largely been playing counter attacking. I was going to swap between control and counter depending on whether I was home or away but counter attacking was working so I just stuck with it. I think it may have been because of the poor finish last season. Clubs thought we were weaker than we actually were and have been attacking more. That won't last. I think I'm going to have to dust off the control version of the tactic for home games at the very least.

How are the team doing? Apart from table toppingly well?

I should probably explain how I've set the screen up first. My inspiration for this view format came from an article on Supports Interactive (by Cleon I think - link to follow if I can find it). This set up lets me first of all judge player performances on some key factors (rating, form, pass completion, minutes per goal, assists per 90) and manage training.

I've included pass completion, minutes per goal and assists per 90 because I think these can be quite useful indicators of performances in areas that we as players (of the game) are likely to make big mistakes in. I'm going to put on my psychology hat again and point this out: We...Humans...are crap at most things. For all the amazing things you can say about the brain and/or the mind (two very different things potentially) the most accurate and all encompassing statement you could make is that it's lazy. The brain/mind tends to take the easiest route to a solution or action, not the most accurate unless you are trying ever so hard.

I think we can see this happening in FM. When you see people moaning on forums that the AI always score in the last minute, or they have too many injuries, or they're not scoring from mistakes but the AI bloody well are then I would say that actually...what is probably happening...is selection bias. They are remembering instances of these events happening and are selectively remembering them. Your keeper fumbles a few shots and they go in? You're much more likely to remember these than all the AI fumbled shots, especially if you are already biased to think that there is a disparity. We tend to select and remember information that supports our biases. The extent to which we can do this is amazing.

So I have this information front and centre so I can tell at glance actually...who is the most prolific scorer out of my strikers. Felic might be my favourite but I don't want that bias and favouritism to blind me to the fact that actually in terms of strike rate he's only marginally better than Magnusson.

I also don't want my assumption I made that Felic is more of a creator than Magnusson to go unchecked. I can glance at the figures and see that even though Magnusson is likely to over take Felic in the goal stakes (all things being equal) Felic is still miles ahead in terms of assists and assists per 90. I could put lots of extra information in there and do the same for say defensive information. But I just don't have room. If I did I would but instead I've settled for those factors.

Pass completion is there because I like my players to retain possession. And to do that I need them to be accurate at passing. 80% is normally my key marker for this though I let it slip for players under certain circumstances.  For example my central defenders. I would love it if they were masters at passing as well but I'm willing to take a hit to their accuracy if it means they're actually clearing the ball out of danger.

I still would be unhappy with less than 70% for my DC's though. For them a lower pass completion can also equate to passing the ball right back to the opposition. Maybe they hoof it deep into the oppositions half and they pick it up, maybe they fluff a pass and the striker lurking outside the box gets it. Either way it's a gift to the opposition that I want to avoid. You can see that two DC have less than 70%; Manns and Eklbad. Manns I think can be forgiven as he has only had bit parts to play so far. Ekblad doesn't have as good an excuse. Injuries permitting Eklbad will be sitting more games out.

Right...back to the season.