Time to ponder [2014]

So with the title won it's time to actually reflect on the team.

From the 1st team I've removed all the players that didn't actually get a game. Usually youth players who were there to add a bit of depth if need be. I've also removed all but one of the players who are leaving at the end of their contract. Between them they only got a handful of sub appearances because of injuries.

Vassilou is the other player who will leave. He was reasonably solid at the back but not overly impressive. Worse still his attributes are rubbish and he's getting on. At 32 I don't see him making the step up and I don't see him being worth the £90 a week he wants. So he'll be going.

We also have two additions from the youth intake: Gustafsson and Prodell.

The coaching staff reckon Gustafsson is a star of the future. I can't really disagree with that and so I placed him on the bench and made him available for 45mins of any reserve games. Prodell they think will be rubbish but I'm willing to take a chance on him. The rest of the intake was rubbish but I can't complain really. One good player and one chancer? I'll take that for a bottom tier team.

The all important pass completion has generally dropped since the halfway point. Some of that can be excused because of the lack of stability from injuries but I would prefer much better from the team. That might be a bit unrealistic for this level but I have a feeling the slight drop in performance at the end of the season could be linked to the drop in pass completion.

I think I was close to my predictions for Felic and Magnusson. Felic played pretty much every league game I think because I favoured him and he managed to grab a healthy amount of goals and assists. In Magnusson had played more (and he was certainly good enough) I think he total would have outstripped that of Felic's. I actually want to sign Magnussion permanently as on the ME he looked pretty dangerous. Felic would bring people in, one two and then turn on the edge of the box to try and score. Magnusson would charge forwards, pick a spot and then terrify the keeper. He also linked up quite well with Berner when I played Berner on the wing (injuries you know). But he has laughed off my offer for £300 a week plus other bonuses. He's out of contract and on a free. I'll keep trying.

Overall I think the team pulled together and shared the load. If you look at the two first choice wingbacks, Molder and Hansen, they chipped in with a few goals but importantly 11 assists.

Celsing, the two Ciraks and Kamara contributed a fantastic 20 goals and 21 assists.

Berner spent most of the time coming off the bench or starting in the AML role in the 2nd half of the season. So with only a bit part that was often out of position he still got an impressive 7 goals.

Perhaps the unsung hero though is Bergh.

Not the most fantastic and awe inspiring of attributes but he kept 9 clean sheets, and conceded 21 goals in 22 games. Those 9 clean sheets were key.


What to do next?

The squad is strong and based on the ease with which we won the title I'm confident we can stay up at the very least without too much in the way of changes (famous last words perhaps?). The board have given us £5.2k a week for wages and ~£40k for transfers so we can spend a little if need be.

We do lack depth though and I'd rather do more than just survive. So I'm going to aim to recruit and recruit well.

Attack

We need another striker....again. I'm not obsessed honest. Magnusson has left after his loan and I want to get him back. If not I want to get someone similar. I don't want Felic and Berner to have to take all the strain. Especially with Felic getting on a bit.

Midfield

I need another AML to cover for Celsing. That's where part of the 'slump' came from - trying to cover for Celsing's position. I would quite like one or two young players as back up here as well just so I can rotate a little to keep players fresh at key points. An AML is the priority though.

Defence

I'm happy with Molder, Manns, Sundberg and Hansen. So that's the back four from right to left but beyond that I don't think we have good cover. Ekblad is staying on for another season but I think he really is an emergency back up for the next season. So any back up I can get for defence will be key. At least one DC and multifunctional DL/R would be good.

'Keeper

Bergh has done well and I think I'll stick with him but I have no backup. Risky really and we were lucky that we got through the season like that. I need a decent back up, a player with potential to take over in a few years or just a loanee.

Overall

I'm thinking AML, GK, DC and maybe a DL/R. Anything else is a bonus.

I actually have two defenders in mind but neither of them actually want to join but maybe once the new season starts and we're in the league above they'll rethink.

Club Development

There's nothing going on here but I thought I'd mention it. I would love to club to upgrade the facilities but we have about £180k in the bank. Not a great deal really so I think I'll hang fire. The board will only say no anyway.

Well that was nice [2014]

If they keep it up I might have a new club to add to my list of favourites. There's something about 'Tuna City.

Despite the crash we beat poor IFK Eskilstuna 2-0. Though it took until the second half to complete it. In doing so we pretty much relegated them which wasn't very fun. I'd have liked them to stay up.

The next match was much more important. 2nd place Rynninge. If we beat them then it would put us 9 points clear with only 9 more points to play for. I was pretty cautious though as they were one of the two teams to actually beat us this season.

So how did it go? I went out playing control football and for the first 30 minutes they were all over us. Shots rained in and the frame of the goal saved us several times. We managed to attack but they blocked every decent shot we had. I decided to make a change. Normally I don't do anything until half time unless we're being hammered but I couldn't see the continued pressure going well. They were going all out and attacking anyway so I switched to counter in the hopes that if we caught them on the break we'd produce better chances and actually put something away. Did it work?

Sort of. We played better but the first goal came from a set piece and the final goal came in extra time from a mistake. I didn't matter though we'd won and it put us in a position where we only needed 1 point from 3 games to seal the title (assuming Rynnige won all 3 of their games).

Who did we have to play? Already relegated Arameisk-Syrianska, not yet safe Varmbol and top half Konyaspor.

So perhaps not the most tension filled run in. We didn't actually beat Arameisk though. They held us to a draw. Not very impressive for us but it was enough. We then drew with Varmbol and beat Konyaspor to finish with a (currently) record breaking 48 points (My post about the first half of the season was right - we did drop more points).

You can see the dropped points here and there. Also the score lines at times got a bit tighter, we conceded more. I put this down to the change in style by other teams and the injuries we had. We pretty much had two or three players in the physio's room at any one time. This isn't too high but they were always first teamers and it sort of rotated so my defence for example never really settled.Also for most of the 2nd half of the season I didn't have an out and out AML playing (excuses, excuses).

But...we had the title! Promotion! And although our form did waver it bit our hold on 1st place didn't much. I don't want to brag but...

Things were slotting into place and the pessimist in me had to acknowledge that the title and promotion at least meant I should be able to get jobs in the bottom tier of Sweden if everything went wrong elsewhere.

Some of the players also seemed happy.

Oh thanks...

I'm a fan of yours too Felic

All but Molder

Two out of three dedicating it to me.

Not sure what I've done to Max Molder though....I'll keep an eye on him...

Next up a bit of end of season analysis of the below...

Five games to go [2014]

For a bit of symmetry here's the table with 5 games to go...

 Still top but the gap isn't as big as I'd like between myself and 2nd. Form has dipped in the second part of the season.

There have been some key injuries. Like Celsing, Wikstrom and Sundberg being out but it's not good enough really. Which on reflection seems a little harsh considering we're still top. It is my fault though...I've been sticking to counter attacking when I should have been mixing it up a bit more. I could see it plainly in the Arkopolis game. We were 3-0 down by half time. I switched to control and we dominated and were unlucky to lose it in the end. 

I'd not mentioned before but we have an interesting derby game this season. Well two I guess. IFK Eskilstuna got promoted from the non-playable league. They share the stadium with us. All the Eskilstuna based teams do. Which makes for an interesting fixture - we drew 'away' with them, 2-2. The 'home' leg is next.

Any other news...only a take over.

Aaaaannnd...it's done

No money to be invested but I'm fine with that. Our bank balance is fine (~£190k) and is projected to be okay by the end of the season (£182k). Nothing quite like a bit of fiscal responsibility.

The transfer window opened and I did see if I could tempt any more players but until we get promoted (if we get promoted) I don't think we'll tempt many players that will actually improve the squad. Instead I just spent some time scouting for players out of contract that might be interested...once they get sick of being unemployed. I will wait until they are at their lowest ebb and vulnerable and then strike.

[As I was writing this I had the derby game playing in the background...we went 2 goals up and then FM13 crashed. 

I saved a few days before hand but it means the table is actually slightly different to the above. Just as importantly the takeover went ahead but instead of Andresson taking over a Daniel Arifi did. Same result though. No investment.]

Happy at Halfway [2014]

There's good news and bad.

The bad being that by the half way point in the season I already know I won't be claiming the invincible steam achievement.

The good being I'm still top anyway as I've not really dropped many points. 26 lovely points from 11 games.

There's been a slight drop in form and performances but I think that's largely been due to a few injuries. So my defenders have had to rotate a little bit more than I would have liked.

Still some good games and if that's the worst of it (and occasional draw and the rare loss) then I think this season is going to be a good one. If I get another 26 in the second half of the season then that would put me on a healthy, and currently record breaking, 52 points. In the last two seasons 42 and 40 have been enough for the title.

I do however know that magically projecting 26 points from my next 11 games isn't a very realistic way of going about things. We've already hit a bit a rough patch in the past few games, so what's to say it won't continue or get worse? Furthermore I'm going to have to deal with how teams react to us in the 2nd half of the season.

Up until this point I've largely been playing counter attacking. I was going to swap between control and counter depending on whether I was home or away but counter attacking was working so I just stuck with it. I think it may have been because of the poor finish last season. Clubs thought we were weaker than we actually were and have been attacking more. That won't last. I think I'm going to have to dust off the control version of the tactic for home games at the very least.

How are the team doing? Apart from table toppingly well?

I should probably explain how I've set the screen up first. My inspiration for this view format came from an article on Supports Interactive (by Cleon I think - link to follow if I can find it). This set up lets me first of all judge player performances on some key factors (rating, form, pass completion, minutes per goal, assists per 90) and manage training.

I've included pass completion, minutes per goal and assists per 90 because I think these can be quite useful indicators of performances in areas that we as players (of the game) are likely to make big mistakes in. I'm going to put on my psychology hat again and point this out: We...Humans...are crap at most things. For all the amazing things you can say about the brain and/or the mind (two very different things potentially) the most accurate and all encompassing statement you could make is that it's lazy. The brain/mind tends to take the easiest route to a solution or action, not the most accurate unless you are trying ever so hard.

I think we can see this happening in FM. When you see people moaning on forums that the AI always score in the last minute, or they have too many injuries, or they're not scoring from mistakes but the AI bloody well are then I would say that actually...what is probably happening...is selection bias. They are remembering instances of these events happening and are selectively remembering them. Your keeper fumbles a few shots and they go in? You're much more likely to remember these than all the AI fumbled shots, especially if you are already biased to think that there is a disparity. We tend to select and remember information that supports our biases. The extent to which we can do this is amazing.

So I have this information front and centre so I can tell at glance actually...who is the most prolific scorer out of my strikers. Felic might be my favourite but I don't want that bias and favouritism to blind me to the fact that actually in terms of strike rate he's only marginally better than Magnusson.

I also don't want my assumption I made that Felic is more of a creator than Magnusson to go unchecked. I can glance at the figures and see that even though Magnusson is likely to over take Felic in the goal stakes (all things being equal) Felic is still miles ahead in terms of assists and assists per 90. I could put lots of extra information in there and do the same for say defensive information. But I just don't have room. If I did I would but instead I've settled for those factors.

Pass completion is there because I like my players to retain possession. And to do that I need them to be accurate at passing. 80% is normally my key marker for this though I let it slip for players under certain circumstances.  For example my central defenders. I would love it if they were masters at passing as well but I'm willing to take a hit to their accuracy if it means they're actually clearing the ball out of danger.

I still would be unhappy with less than 70% for my DC's though. For them a lower pass completion can also equate to passing the ball right back to the opposition. Maybe they hoof it deep into the oppositions half and they pick it up, maybe they fluff a pass and the striker lurking outside the box gets it. Either way it's a gift to the opposition that I want to avoid. You can see that two DC have less than 70%; Manns and Eklbad. Manns I think can be forgiven as he has only had bit parts to play so far. Ekblad doesn't have as good an excuse. Injuries permitting Eklbad will be sitting more games out.

Right...back to the season.

Well that's pretty good... [2014]

Well I thought we would do well but I wasn't expecting a start quite like this.

Promising performances in the cup and then a blitz in the first five league games. It's not just the scorelines that look good either, the team are actually playing some football.

So the cup...we're out of it which is sad. But we beat a team in the 1st division and held a top flight side to a draw...and we finished 2nd. Pretty good all in all and a nice little warm up before the start of the season. Having to enter such a tough group stages means we won't be winning the cup for some time but it's a good, relatively pressure free, way of putting the squad through its paces.

And in the league? 19 goals scores in 5 games...and 3 conceded. I don't think it'll stay that way. I think the average goals per game scored will go down, and conceded up, over the course of the season but if we don't drop too much then we're in for a entertaining time.

Felic has got straight in their with the goals. But also with some assists. And what is even more promising is that the goals have come from a range of players. At this point we're not over reliant on any one person to get the goals.

Time for 'Tuna [2014]

Yeah that one is bad.

Anyway it was time to start my first proper season with 'Tuna. From the 3 games of last season and a general look at my players I thought we should be aiming pretty high. We were playing like a top half team and the media likewise thought we should be aiming for that as well. They were predicting 3rd place. The board joined in with the general feel of optimistic and suggested a top half finish as well.

They handed over a reasonable wage budget (£4.2k a week) and quite a big transfer budget (~£40k). At this level I don't often spend the transfer budget. There aren't many players worth the money, and you're unlikely to ever recover your fee. So I was tempted to pump the money back into the wage budget if needed. Hopefully it wouldn't be though as I was around 1.5k under the budget anyway. I want to try and be financially responsible by keeping under the budget. What I've learnt from my previous save is that with smaller teams in FM13 finances, or a lack of, seem to hit much harder (realistically so) compared to past versions.

Transfers

So I have good financial intentions...not sure I've stuck to my guns completely though as I've tempted a few players in by more or less flaunting a wad of notes under their nose. Like Oskarshamn I didn't have many players show an interest but unlike my time at Oskarshamn I was able to use offer enough to let their greed take over.


So my transfer activity is as follows...

[The screenshots below were taken at various points during the season (I've almost caught up with myself!) so please excuse any clues and hints they give away as to how the seasons gone.]

Up Front

I brought in 4 players here, 2 of those on loan. Seems like quite a lot but I wanted to a) have some depth, b) some competition and c) have options if one or more of them couldn't hit a barn door.

Magnusson

 Potentially a bit of a beast at this level and should slot nicely into either a poacher or Treq role. The distribution of stats aren't perfect, or always very high but the combination seems to suggest he's worth a go. At no wage cost I snapped him up. He might not start often for me (see below) but off the bench or the occasional game should offer something different. [Because I didn't get myself into gear with the blog you already see signs of success for Magnusson in his match stats...]

Felic

 I had plans for this guy to start in the Treq role for me. I know stats wise a case could be made for Magnusson to start over him but I just felt he would player much more of a creative role. Magnusson looks like a finisher, Felic a creator. I know this sounds daft when comparing their actual creativity and flair but the spread of the other stats suggest this difference to me.

Here's where I may go a little off track but I have a theory as to why that is - pattern recognition. I'm a psychologist. My background is cognitive psychology and as well as lecturing in the area I conduct research. One of the things people tend to be good at, or good at learning about anyway, is pattern recognition. We can recognise a chair when we only see part of it because we auto-complete the image - we associate a certain physical pattern with the concept or memory of a chair and when enough of that pattern is activated we bring to mind or recall the associated concept. We can pick out hidden images because we manipulate and adjust things mentally, and we can represent (see Connectionism if anyone is interested) concepts, ideas, images, memories, etc. theoretically as patterns.

What I think is happening here is I've learnt (correctly or not) that a certain spread of mental attributes can be associated with a certain type of player. In this case creative forwards. So when I see pattern similar to it that is what is brought to mind. Now I could be wrong (on so many levels) but it's a comforting explanation for me. I'm not going mad and irrational my mind is just working according to basic behaviourist/connectionist principles and that's that. I actually have an idea to test this....

Back on track now - I also tend to, irrationally perhaps, favour players I own over loanee's. I take a bit of a mercenary attitude perhaps but unless a loan player is going to sign for me I don't care about their development. If I own them though then I have much more of a vested interest in giving them the time on the pitch to do well. I know it doesn't really apply to a player Felic's age but I find it a difficult habit to break.

Berner

Berner again was going to be rotated in or played from the bench. Partly because of his speed and partly because if need be I could play him in the AMR position and have Felic feed him. Hopefully he'll develop well.

I've not mentioned the final striker. A loanee called Englund. Mainly because they're middle of the road and are my emergency striker. Again no wage cost, so I thought I'd have them there in case the worst happens and all of the above 3 end up limping around with leg casts on.

Midfield

I didn't need anywhere near as much reinforcement here so I didn't sign anyone. I did try and get a few people in - loans and free's. But the loanee's didn't want to come and the free's wanted too much for what would essentially be a back up and bench warming role for many of them.

Defence

Molder

A little more activity here. A right back - Molder. And a central defender - Ekblad. Molder to slot straight in, and maybe rotate with my Swedish U19 defender Manns. Ekblad was there to act as a solid back up for the centre.

Molder looked like a good bet for the wing back role. Fast, defensively sound when needed (tackling, marking and concentration at least!) and mentally...adequate. He can also pass which means when he's done running the ball might go somewhere useful.

So those are my recruits....but what of the rest of the team. Well below is my starting 11 plus tactic.

And below are some of the key players.

Cirak - AMR

Wikstrom - DMC

Alan... I mean Anton Hansen - DL/C

Lundevall - MC

Another Cirak - MC or AMC

Manns - DC/R

Kamara - MC

Celsing - AML

A lot of them seem to perform way beyond there stats. The Cirak's for example aren't fantastic stats wise but they are a real threat. Likewise Kamara seems half decent but he plays like twice the player the stats suggest. So with the new recruits and the core of the team from last year I was ready to take on the rest of the Swedish 2nd Division South Svealand.